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Catalonia tries to avoid repeating history, but Spain has economic reality on its side

Catalonia tries to avoid repeating history, but Spain has economic reality on its side

Karl Marx famously wrote: “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce”.

The phrase might well have been coined with Catalonia in mind.

Generalissimo Franco began a military coup against the elected Spanish government in the Canary Islands in 1936. The battle spread across Spain, and Catalonia was the last redoubt of the Republic to fall, in 1939. Franco took brutal revenge. Tens of thousands were imprisoned or executed, many of these within living memory. The Catalan language was banned.

Now the Catalans have proclaimed independence and Spain has imposed direct rule.

We do not of course know how events will pan out this time around. Things may turn serious. Yet there is certainly a slapstick element to having two different sets of police on the streets, and two different groups of civil servants, each taking different sets of orders.

In both the late 1930s and now, economics has a potentially decisive role in the eventual outcome.

There are many reasons for Franco’s victory. An important one is that the Republican side could just not obtain enough modern armaments. Catalonia even then was the richest part of Spain, but the arms the Catalans needed were made abroad, and, as the civil war progressed, increasingly they could not afford them.

A leading element in the Catalan government was the Workers’ Party of Marxist Unification (POUM in Spanish). POUM was inspired by Leon Trotsky, in much the same way as Jeremy Corbyn and his close acolytes appear to be today.

Sympathy for the historical role of POUM goes a long way to explaining why Corbynistas are enthusiastic supporters of the contemporary Catalans.

But POUM made a catastrophic mistake: initiating a policy of expropriating private property. One effect was a major loss of confidence, and the collapse of the Republican peseta on the foreign exchanges, meaning that all imports, not just weapons, became punitively expensive.

Another generalissimo who was a political contemporary of Franco, one Joseph Stalin, described Trotskyists as a “gang of wreckers and diversionists”. In this, at least, he was surely correct.

This time, the Catalans are desperately trying to create separate a currency, using technology based on digital tokens. Their government is considering an e-residency programme such as the one in Estonia. This provides a way to operate a location-independent business online.

More traditional businesses have already voted with their feet. Almost 1,700 companies, including two big banks (Sabadell and CaixaBank), have switched their headquarters to other parts of Spain since the crisis escalated at the start of October.

The EU has made it clear that an independent Catalonia would not be a member of either the EU or the Eurozone. The latter would probably be a decided advantage, but effective expulsion from the EU could cause serious short term dislocations.

It is not just loyalty to Spain which is leading a lot of Catalans to demonstrate against independence. Whatever the long term outlook, the immediate economic costs would be substantial.

As published in City AM Wednesday 1st November 2017

Image: Demonstration by By Màrius Montón  via Wikimedia Commons is licensed under CC by 4.0
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How to stop tech hubs in urban hotspots from intensifying geographic inequalities

How to stop tech hubs in urban hotspots from intensifying geographic inequalities

Perhaps George Osborne’s most abiding legacy from his time as chancellor will be the creation of the concept of the Northern Powerhouse. Certainly Manchester, its principal focus, is booming.

The landscape of the centre is being altered dramatically by skyscrapers. Peel Holdings, the huge investment and property outfit, is planning to double the size of the development around Media City in the old docks, where the BBC was relocated. The airport, already the third busiest in the UK, is expanding.

All in all, it seems a triumph for modern capitalism. After decades of relative decline, a city is being transformed by private enterprise. But what is really going on?

In a piece this month in the MIT publication Technology Review, urban guru Richard Florida has picked up on a startling new trend in the location of new technology companies in the US.

In the 1980s, there were essentially no high tech companies in city locations. Instead, we had Intel and Apple in Silicon Valley, Microsoft in the Seattle suburbs, the Route 128 beltway outside Boston, and the corporate campuses of North Carolina’s Research Triangle.

Now, urban centres are rapidly becoming the places which attract technology companies. In 2016, the San Francisco metro area was top of the list for venture capital investment, attracting more than three times the amount of the iconic location of Silicon Valley. Google has taken over the old Port Authority building in Manhattan. Amazon’s headquarters are in downtown Seattle.

The impact of this new, high concentration of tech firms is to intensify geographic inequalities. As Florida puts it: “tech startups helped turn a handful of metro areas into megastars. Now, they’re tearing those cities apart.”

A relatively small number of urban areas in America, and within them a small number of neighbourhoods, are capturing all the benefits.

The same sort of thing seems to be going on in Greater Manchester. A few areas are soaring away and attracting wealth and talent. In 1981, fewer than 600 people lived in what the Council describes as “the heart of Manchester”. Now, over 50,000 do, almost all of them young graduates.

But the more traditional outlying boroughs of the city region, especially to the north and east, are struggling to capture any trickle down from this massive transformation. Indeed, they are at risk of losing out, as their young bright sparks are attracted by the life of the inner metropolis.

Richard Florida does not just identify the problem, he suggests some possible solutions. One of which is a programme of building lots of good housing in the outlying areas, supplemented by a top class public transport service. This would keep house prices down, and attract some of the people stuck in rabbit warrens in the urban centres.

Manchester already has a modern tram service. But the new Labour mayor, Andy Burnham, is resolutely opposed to building on the green belt just to the north and east of the city. Yet another example of the sanctimonious intentions of the Left serving to intensify, not reduce, inequality.

As published in City AM Thursday 29th June 2017

Image: Media City UK by Magnus D is licensed under CC by 2.0
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